Review: Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits : Philip Fisher

Buy. 

Anyone who is a long term investor in stock markets must read this book. I truly wish I had come across this book earlier, but better late than never. 

The book is about how to find the right stocks (and yes its a lot of work) to invest in. Fisher explains the process really well for those who want to it the right way. With 5 decades of experience, through multiple bull and bear markets, I think the experience distilled in this book is invaluable. 

The one part i found really useful was that its of no use to try to make short term trading gains on your sizeable long term holding. I was contemplating that i could sell the stock when high, pocket some gains, and buy it again when the stock was low. Fisher explains why it does not work, and bless him, because he potentially definitely saved me from loss.   

Also, i was generally thinking that in the current period when the market is at the highest point, and has risen rapidly, it will surely regress to mean. Fisher explains why it would be a bad idea to sell good stocks at this point, that have risen exponentially. There is bound to be some controversy here, but I respect the explanations.  

I see a lot of parallels with writings of Buffet and Munger, on the value investing theme, with the difference being that Fisher is ready is pay for projected growth based on the deep analysis of the company.  

Truly a masterpiece. 

Tip: Skip the Preface and Introduction (about 30 pages). They add no value. 

Review: Sapiens by Yuval Noah Harari

I am back to writing, after a hiatus of 5 years! How that happened is a separate story. I just finished reading Sapiens and I do recommend it highly even though I have a mixed opinion overall, due to one specific chapter in the book. 

Sapiens is a well researched work on the human history and taking you through the evolution from chimps 6 M years ago to the modern human. In between, there are exciting stories of the evolution in Africa, stone tools, Neanderthals, fire, languages, agriculture, kingdoms, empire, money, industrial revolution. Finally, there is a chapter on the present and the future. Given that we are not absolutely certain why things panned out in a specific way, the author has carefully called out facts, best guesses, or speculations in the text. Reading the book was like reading the history text book from school, except that there was requirement to commit all dates and names to memory :).  

Even though Dr Harari managed to keep me latched on through the first 400+ pages, the modern history is very selective in its presentation. While the racism and civil movements in USA get a fair bit of attention, the world was declared war-free since 1945, overlooking the Indo-China war in 1962 and  Indo-Pak war in 1965 (leading to creation of Bangaldesh). Maybe these were not deemed significant enough. But even the unification of most of India under Maurya/Ashoka dynasty is not given much attention. The rise of terrorism gets only a passing mention. Probably it was a deliberate attempt to keep the details of last few centuries at par with the space given to each millennium in the text. Or maybe, the recent human history is better known already. Also, the last couple of chapters are more speculative in nature and at least for me, the chain of thought was broken, from soaking in history to what sounded philosophical. It would have been best if there was some heads up in the text that we were now moving from historical facts to philosophy. The very last chapter attempts to identify possible scenarios for the future and borrows heavily from science fiction. Again, this is very difficult to get right, so the less said about that, the better. 

Overall, I throughly enjoyed reading the book. History is always good to know, and to learn from. We sincerely do not want to repeat the mistake of Incas by welcoming aliens in the future. The text on dairy farming mechanization was an eye opener - I had no idea that animals are being so brutally tortured to put the daily breakfast on the table for humans. Another food for thought, is the experiments being done on other species to discover better cures. Is it morally right? Dr Harari raises the questions for the reader to ponder over and provides arguments from the different points of views. Definitely some thinking to be done here. 

Review: The hard thing about hard things by Ben Horowitz

Ben tells you his real life challenges while running multiple startups. There are instances of moral, financial and social dilemmas that are really hard to solve. Ben talks about the ifs and buts and what he action he finally took. E.g. how to lay off or demote people (including execs), how to handle politics, ambitions and promotions, how to handle ambiguities, etc.

Ben provides the solutions but is clear that these are not prescriptive. What works at a given time and place may not work at another. Still these open up the mind to possibilities. Ben clearly innovated his way out of multiple holes - including multiple near-death instances of his startups. 

All hard problems. No sugarcoating. In your face. Only someone with multiple real life battle scars can write a book like this. And the rest of us can only be grateful.

This book is essential read for all entrepreneurs (and everyone else!). While the primary audience that will gain the most out of this book is the senior/exec level, for non exec levels it provides a great insight into the dilemmas at the top-office.


 

Book Review: Bold by Peter H Diamandis and Steven Kotler

Read this book last month so its not fresh in my mind. But what i liked about this book was that it really does open up your mind to bold ideas and how to think at scale. There is practical advice on how to benefit from Moore's Law and make a good guess-estimate of technology markers for the future. Thats part one of the book; and the most interesting.

Part 2 of the book is less interesting - it does give a large number of anecdotes about going big - but i believe that the conclusions usually suffer from hindsight bias.

Part 3 of the book is something i would recommend to anyone trying to raise funds - specially via crowdfunding. Very practical advice on how to go about raising funds with a list of do's and dont's. 

Oye OYO! What do you want to be when you grow up?

4500+ Hotels, 174 Cities, 1.5Mn Room Nights. Largest branded hotel chain in India. All in less than 3 years. Awesome. Superb. Hats off!

So what's next? OYO website says "... dream of becoming the world's largest branded network of hotels." Great stuff to aspire for. The value prop of standardized stay at an affordable price for "everyone" seems to have struck a chord.

Some Facts (from Wikipedia):  Best Western (established 1946) has 4000 hotels, IHG has 5K hotels, Marriott has 4K+, etc. The largest is Wyndham with 7.7K rooms. Most other chains have significantly less number of properties, especially at the higher end.

So, at this clip, OYO would be the largest hotel chain worldwide in next 2 years or less! Cool.
  
Couple of things, though. Firstly, in USA, large hotel chains with standardized stays already exist in different categories. e.g. Best Western, IHG, Hilton, Choice, etc. Not so sure about global markets, but unlike India, the US market is definitely saturated. Secondly, most chains have defined their market positioning very clearly. I think OYO will need to look at both these things closely.
Lets discuss positioning further.

OYO website has 5 or more categories of hotels - ranging from Budget to Elite. It seems odd to put all categories under a single brand name. Its an interesting experiment but I am really skeptical that this would work. Mental positioning would suffer, i.e. folks who are probably not the target market would end up booking and then be disappointed with their stay experience. This is probably the reason that if one looks at the Tripadvisor ratings, in general the ratings are fairly poor.  Why would that happen? AC room, clean linens, breakfast, free-wifi, clean washrooms and cable TV. At jaw dropping prices. What more can you ask for (at that price)? Why then, aren't all the ratings 5-star?  While its true that in general the Tripadvisor ratings have a negative bias, however, most "reasonably good" properties have a decreasing count of ratings from 5 star to 1 star, leading to an overall 3+ rating.

Most hotel chains worldwide position different category of hotels under different brands and deliver a different (yet consistent) customer experience e.g. in decreasing order from Luxury to Budget:
Marriott: Ritz-Carlton, Marriott, Renaissance, Delta, Fairfield. IHG: InterContinental, Crowne Plaza, Indigo, Holiday Inn, Holiday Inn Express, Candlewood Suites. Best Western: Best Western Plus, Best Western Premier, Best Western.  Taj: Taj, Vivanta, Gateway and Ginger. Wyndham Gruoup is particularly interesting since it owns multiple budget brands Days Inn, Knights Inn, Microtel, Super 8 and Travelodge.

So why don't Best Western/Marriott/Taj call all their properties by the same brand name?

I think OYO should relook at their positioning and decide what they want to be when they grow up. Are they really catering to "everyone"?
Wish them all success as they grow up to be the largest branded hotel chain and have millions of satisfied customers.

Review: The Firm (The inside story of McKinsey)

I saw this book while generally browsing the book store and this statement on the cover seemed very intriguing - the world's most controversial management consultancy. I recalled the instance when I was preparing for MBA school admission. I had taken a coaching class, which was run by some ex-IIM folks. The asked the class: "How many people here have heard of McKinsey?" Only 3 hands went up. They then declared, that possibly only 3 people from that class would get into IIM. That story has remained on my mind for 20 years. (and no, I didn't know Mck and I didn't get into IIM either). Even in the professional life, Mck remained an enigma. It would come up in many different contexts, but didn't really touch my life. So, here was a book claiming to reveal the guts of Mck - I didn't hesitate to pick it up immediately.

I wasn't disappointed. The author, Duff McDonald, has done an awesome job at telling the McK story, right through inception, through its multiple leaders and how it works. The pace of the book is pretty good and almost reads like an unputdownable thriller. The author has presented a very balanced view about the firm, bringing out the best and worst times in its history. It talks in length about the founding principles and values and how these were propagated through time, geographies, growth and changing business environment.  

I am really amazed that they have come out of almost impossible situations almost unscathed. i.e. Enron, Insider trading, etc and they are still trusted advisers of repute, not just for top corporates but even governments across the world.   
 
I highly recommend this book to everyone. 

Getting Driving License in Gurgaon - Part 1

I needed to get my driving license so i searched around on google and found some helpful posts. However the process has changed and has been updated so i thought i might share it here for everyone else to benefit.

The first step is to go to the Mini Secretariat near Rajiv Chowk. (from Delhi, take rajiv chowk exit and then turn right and then keep left on the fork and then first left).

Enter from the main entrance and the room on the left is where you will get the forms. Note that there are different forms for Light Vehicle and Heavy Vehicle. Get the right forms and a file (Rs 10).  Took me about 10 minutes to locate this and get the forms. Another 10 minutes to fill in the forms.

Fill in the forms and take them to the medical officer. This is in a different room in the same building. With a quick eye check etc, the medical officer will sign the form. Note that you need to have your photo attached. (Rs 150).

Once you are done with this you need to go traffic police office, sector 51. (Google map directions are correct).  Here you are shown a 90 minute video on traffic rules and given a rule booklet. (Rs. 100).

Note that are only 4 slots per day for the video. About 80 people can be accommodated in that room. first slot is at 8:45 am. Then you work the rest of the timings keeping 1 - 2 pm for lunch break.

Just after the video, you can take a computerized test. about 10 people can take the test simultaneously. This has 30 questions, which are mostly covered in the video and the booklet. The test will take about 20 minutes. If you clear the test (60% pass marks), you are handed a slip with your photo. This is your temporary learning driver license.

You are done with part 1.

After 30 days you can apply for permanent license. I will cover that in part 2, once i get to that.

UPDATE: 11 Nov 2013 

So I went to Mini Secretariat today for my permanent driving license and I made a startling discovery. The document i had got from sector 51 was simply an ack for passing written test. I was supposed to go back to the mini secretariat and deposit the file there and then get the photo clicked. I had waited 1 month for nothing!!

Anyway, so after standing in queue for 20 minutes, i got the file checked at counter number 3. Then went to hall #2 to get a photo clicked and submit the file there.  (Rs 135/-).  I have been told that the learner license will be mailed to me in 7 days. Lets watch.

USA: Done that 2

The last post was upto September 2012, so completing that list is in order.
I had thought i would actually elaborate and post pics for my previous list.. but never got around to that...

So here goes...

• Sonoma classic car racing - Guavus CFO, Tim Monahan is a avid racer and was participating and stood second, and wasnt very happy about it. This is his car..
  

•  Exploratorium in San Francisco is a fun place for kids, to experiment and learn.. This is next to the palace of fine arts, which is also a beautiful place and seemed to be very popular for post wedding photos.

 

• Dandiya night at Santa Clara convention center
  
  
   
  
   
  
  
  • Oakland - Day in the park
  
  
   
  
  
  •  Griffen observatory, Los Angeles
  
  
  
   
  • Of course, must have touristy pic :) 
   
  
  
  
  • Cruise to Catalina Island, off San Diego and to Ensenada, Mexico
  
  
  
  
  
  • Universal Studios, Los Angeles 
  
  
  
   
• Road Trip - Valley of Fire State Park, Nevada. Great flaming red rocks.. 
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USA: Been there, done that

So, its been 1 Year+ since we arrived in the silicon valley, supposedly the best place to stay US - and why not - there is so much to do! Also, i noticed that I hadn't written anything in the last 1 year. So lets start with the highlights of the last year. We came with the agenda of seeing as much of US as we could and I think we have done a pretty good job of covering large parts of California and nearby regions, special events and experiences (hard to do in India). 
Starting roughly in order, big and small:

1. Golden Gate Bridge and state park
2. Theme parks - California Great America Park
3. Monterey, 17 mile Drive, Santa Cruz, Mystery Spot
4. Muir Woods Redwoods forest
5. Reno
6. Lake Tahoe - Skiing - first experience for kids
7. Sunnyvale - Shoreline Park evening walk
8. Fremont - Lake Elizabeth - Picnic and hiking
9. San Jose - Christmas in the park 
10. Santa Clara - Global Winterland 
11. Los Angeles - Walk of fame, Kodak theatre
12. Anaheim - Disneyland 
13. San Diego - Sea world, Mission beach
14. Las Vegas - Saw Le Reve The Dream show
15. Del Valle - First camping experience with family
16. Yosemite
17. Napa Valley - Wine tasting and picnic
18. Cherry Picking at Brentswood
19. Lake Berryessa 
20. San Mateo- Maker Faire event 
21. San Francisco - Pier 39 and Twin Peaks
22. Lime Kiln State Park - Big Sur Camping 
23. Lake Chabot State Park Oakland - Hiking 
24. Los Gatos Vasona Park - Barbeque and Picnic
25. Backyard above ground pool - 15 feet wide - installed in the yard for summer!

Not bad for 1 year, what say :)